Вижу много бизнесов закрывается

First about the duty — here, fortunately, there are verified data. According to the US duties of 2018–2019, almost the entire tariff passed into prices almost without discounts on his part: the importer actually paid the duty and then the buyer (Amiti, Itskhoki, Konings, NBER). With parcels to the EU, the mechanics are similar: the duty is paid on import, and the declarant can be either the seller in advance (then it is already in the price), or the recipient upon delivery — that is, in both cases, in the end out of the buyer's pocket.

What happens to the market — your logic generally coincides with the data: some sellers cannot restructure deliveries and leave (or reorient to other markets), local producers get a respite. In US studies, two effects were added: competitors-importers from third countries raised prices after the tariff (the duty works as a price umbrella for everyone, not just for the taxed country), and retaliatory duties hit exporters.

About "officials decide" — here I would rather agree with you. Each individual duty looks reasonable (protect your own, replenish the budget, punish for dumping), but the amount of such decisions is usually unprofitable for the buyer: prices are higher, the choice is less, and the one who is protected wins. And yes, they pay twice: out of pocket for goods and out of the budget for compensation to victims.

As usual, small stores survive and start (without guarantees, but this is a typical set):

• a narrow niche and repeat sales: the community around the product, mailings, local events; repeat purchases are the main source of survival for a small store;

• direct sales without intermediaries: own website, social networks, local markets; margin without site commission;

• B2B and niche products where marketplaces are weak: spare parts, rare sizes, professional inventory;

• services + goods: service and repair pull traffic to the commodity part;

• neighboring markets: selling to neighboring countries instead of one overheated site.

Bottom line: little ones survive not at the expense of "another point", but at the expense of what the marketplace does not have — customer knowledge and flexibility. The marketplace is usually the second channel, not the first.

Good questions, I'll answer in order.

How to start a small business if you don't want to give everything to marketplaces

Immediately and only on the marketplace is the easiest start, but also the most vulnerable: commissions and rules are changed by the platform, and the buyer remains it, not yours. Usually, those who use the marketplace as one of the channels, rather than the only one, survive:

• Marketplace — to check demand and first sales. This is a quick way to understand whether a product is bought at all and at what price. The commission should be immediately included in the price as a rental.
• Own channel from the first day. A simple website or page with a catalog, messenger, social networks, newsletter. Include your reorder credit card directly with your package. Repeated purchases without commission often make the business profitable.
• Niche where the marketplace is weak. The worst thing is to compete on the price of a standard product. There are better chances where consultation, selection, manual work, locality, service or community are important: repairs, workshops, crafting, hobbies, goods "for the task".
• Product data. This is a response to a quote about AI recommendations. Normal titles, characteristics, photos, prices and availability on your site, as well as a profile in maps with reviews — all this is cheap and helps both search engines and AI assistants find you, not just large sites.

In short: the marketplace is a traffic rental, and your channel is a property. It is necessary to do both, but gradually move to the second.

Who pays duty on small parcels in the EU

From July 1, 2026, in the EU, instead of duty-free import of parcels cheaper than €150, there is a fixed duty of €3 per item, more precisely for each commodity category in the parcel, plus VAT, as before¹.

Formally, the importer pays, but in practice it all depends on the scheme:

• The seller works through IOSS (this is what Temu, Shein and large sellers do). Duty and VAT are included in the price when placing an order, and the buyer pays them immediately, without noticing.
• Seller without IOSS. The buyer pays upon receipt, plus a carrier fee for clearance, which is often more than the fee itself.

But economically, the duty is almost always borne in one way or another by the buyer through the price. Studies of US duties in 2025 show that the bulk of them are shifted to buyers: according to the Kiel Institute, almost completely².

What happens to the market

In general, you have correctly described the chain, but there is an important detail.

• Prices for cheap imports are rising. For an order for 5–10€, three euros is noticeable, so small orders with Temu and Shein become less profitable. This will be felt most of all by buyers with low incomes: in the United States, it was estimated that the abolition of duty-free importation costs them the most[^ yale].
• Local stores are getting easier. But this is more of an equalization of conditions than a classic market protection. The European store has previously paid wholesale import duties and VAT on all sales, and a parcel from China for €10 did not pay the duty at all. €3 reduces this difference, and does not make imports prohibitive.
• Sellers are being rebuilt, not just shut down. Large platforms take the goods in bulk to warehouses in the EU and ship from there. The duty is then paid once per batch and delivery is faster. Mostly small sellers who earned money by sending individual parcels suffer.
• Domestic analogues will not appear by themselves. No new factories are being built for a duty of €3. Rather, existing European stores and brands, which are easier to compete in retail, will benefit.

About "officials decide at the expense of taxpayers"

There is a rational grain in this: any duty is a tax that buyers eventually pay, and this decision is made by politicians. The arguments of supporters are different: equal conditions for their stores that pay taxes, security controls and fakes (billions of small parcels come to the EU per year, and it is almost impossible to check them), less fraud with understating the cost. Economists argue where the balance is. But €3 per product is a mild measure compared to American duties, which reach tens of percent of the cost.

For duties in the EU, it is important to divide three payments: VAT, customs duty and a possible carrier fee for clearance. For parcels from outside the EU up to €150, VAT can be collected by the seller or site in advance via IOSS. From July 1, 2026, a temporary customs duty of €3 per unit of goods is in effect for low-cost import shipments, although there are exceptions and special regimes: European Commission.

Who actually pays upon receipt depends on the sales scheme: with IOSS, the buyer usually sees VAT already in the basket; without it, the carrier or customs representative can demand VAT, duty and fee from the recipient. For the seller, it still becomes part of the price and logistics — even if legally the payment at the time of delivery is made by the buyer.

For local brands, this may give some protection against very cheap imports, but it does not guarantee success: they may have more expensive materials, components and delivery. Write the country, category of goods and approximate cost of the parcel — then you can decompose a specific scenario without mixing VAT, duty and commission of the carrier.